Barry U. from Oklahoma City, OK asks: Hello Mitch, My question is about the effect that tariffs could have on consumers in terms of spending decisions, but also regarding inflation. Is there writing on the wall that spending will take a hit as prices go up? Wouldn’t that be the opposite of what we want for the economy? Thank you for your time.
Mitch’s Response:
You’re touching on one of arguably the most important storylines in the U.S. economy, besides the tariffs themselves of course. Last week, we saw a new report from the University of Michigan showing that consumer sentiment has declined for a third straight month. The sentiment index fell to 77.9 in early April from 79.4 in March, and the drop appears tied to growing concerns over inflation and trade tensions.1
In particular, the report notes a rise in both short- and long-term inflation expectations: consumers now expect prices to rise by 3.1% over the next year (up from 2.9% the month prior) and by 3.0% annually over the next five years.
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This uptick in inflation expectations is meaningful. Consumer expectations are forward-looking and tend to affect behavior. If people believe prices will continue to rise, they may accelerate major purchases—homes, cars, appliances—or become more selective in their discretionary spending. That can lead to uneven demand across sectors. On the flip side, persistent cost pressures—particularly on essential goods like food and energy—can cause households to pull back more broadly, dampening overall consumption.
Tariffs are a key piece of this inflation picture. When import duties are imposed—especially on widely used intermediate goods or consumer products—they raise costs for businesses, many of which pass those costs on to consumers. That’s part of why inflation expectations are rising now. With the new round of U.S. tariffs directed largely at Chinese imports, markets are already pricing in the potential for higher costs to ripple across the supply chain.
All these signals appear to point in the negative direction, but it’s important to stress that the tariff story can change from day to day. The U.S. could negotiate deals with many countries quickly, and the U.S. and China could de-escalate in the coming days, weeks, or months which would factor as a positive surprise.
To be sure, I do believe 10% universal tariffs, a protracted trade fight with China, and general uncertainty will have some impact on growth, consumer spending, and other key economic fundamentals. The extent of this impact is the current unknown. The longer these policies remain in place, the greater the likelihood we see a downshift in growth and possibly a recession in 2025. But as I said before, all these headwinds could disappear tomorrow. There is simply no way to know for sure. For now, the consumer remains reasonably resilient, supported by low unemployment and rising wages—but confidence could continue to deteriorate if tariff posturing and policy moves in the wrong direction.
For investors who fear the sting of inflation, it’s crucial to understand specific measures that can be implemented to safeguard your long-term investments. Rising uncertainty means inflation could spike at any moment, eroding the purchasing power of your savings. While the future remains unclear, there are actionable steps you can take today to protect your retirement from these unpredictable forces.
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Disclosure